Risk assessment of radiological dispersal device terrorism in the Malaysia cities

Salleh, Nurshariz Izham (2022) Risk assessment of radiological dispersal device terrorism in the Malaysia cities. [Project Paper] (Submitted)

Text FS 2022 77.pdf Download (2MB)

Abstract

Terrorist attack is a serious threat to a country especially for a developing nation like Malaysia because it can cause panic amount the citizens and the lack of sufficient intelligent manpower to counter the threat thus impeding the recovery rate of the nation after the attack. If the terrorist somehow able to get a lot of radionuclide into their hands and has the capability to develop a radiological dispersal device (RDD) they will be able to carry out a small nuclear attack thus a guideline is needed for a smooth emergency measure. For this reason, a research about the dispersion of the radionuclide after the explosion was conducted by assuming the terrorist will attack several city in Malaysia. The possible city that could be targeted is in Kuala Lumpur (3.14° N, 101.71° E), Kuching (1.55° N, 110.36° E) and Kota Kinabalu (5.98° N, 116.072° E). This research aim study the dose concentration that will be released from the RDD explosion in 24 hours and to evaluate the health risk from the morbidity and mortality per 100000 people in the city. A software called Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) was used to simulate this situation. HYSPLIT is a software that can measure the air particle trajectory to determine how far and in which path the particle will follow. The HYSPLIT model was configured to study the trajectory, dispersion and dose concentration based on the time, altitude along with the potential city that will be targeted by the terrorist. For this study, the radionuclide that has been analyse is Cs-137 at 50 TBq and simulated during 22nd December 2020 with the meteorological data called Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) that can be taken from the ftp server of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA. After the simulation, the data was extracted and it was discovered that the dose concentration in the air is 3.3 mSv, 1.8 mSv, 7.7 mSv whereas for dose deposited on the ground is 150 mSv, 71 mSv and 310 mSv for Kuala Lumpur, Kuching and Kota Kinabalu respectively in just a duration of 24 hours. An in depth study was conducted and it is learned that the dose concentration is very significant for the first 4 hours after the release of contaminant Cs-137 from the RDD. The value shown that the dose concentration spike around 30 to 90 minutes mark at the height of 60 to 80 metre. The risk assessment is then conducted from the radioactivity in the air through inhalation and the result shown that a death of 88 people and 128 people will be injured per 100000 residents in the city if they are located in a place with the altitude of 60 to 80 metre during the span of 0045 hours to 0100 hours after the dispersion of Cs-137. From this simulation, it is hope that it can be a guidance for the government to take precaution against the threat that maybe happening by improving the management of radioactive waste and creating or improving a protocol to counter this incident. It is vital to take a very fast approach to tackle this problem because many people can die to this incident and the government is responsible for the people live.

Item Type:	Project Paper
Faculty:	Fakulti Sains
Depositing User:	Ms Emelda Mohd Hamid
Date Deposited:	20 May 2024 03:44
Last Modified:	09 Aug 2024 08:39
URI:	http://psaspb.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/1776

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