Atmospheric dispersion and dose assessment of 131I and 137Cs from simulated nuclear power plant explosions in South-East Asia

Muhamad, Lokman Hakim (2022) Atmospheric dispersion and dose assessment of 131I and 137Cs from simulated nuclear power plant explosions in South-East Asia. [Project Paper] (Submitted)

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Abstract

Radiological incident is considered as one of tremendous disaster as it could cause significant amounts of radionuclides dispersed and lead to potential cancer risk. Hence, it is necessary for responsible authorities to simulate hypothetical accidents from a potential nuclear reactor. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the dispersion of 131I and 137Cs from the hypothetical incident scenario in Ninh Thuan, Vietnam (11.6906°N, 109.1753°E) and Bangi, Malaysia (2.9156°N, 101.7832°E) and to determine the potential exposure to the interest population. Furthermore, this data is crucial for the authority to determine the risk of mortality from the accidents if it eventually happen. The HYSPLIT model is used and configured based on the meteorological conditions in the two potential sites for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in southeast Asia. This model is used to simulate atmospheric dispersion of fission emissions and then assess the public health effects from the hypothetical nuclear accident. The maximum distance of radionuclides was determined by analysing activity concentration from the source term at different locations, time and altitudes. By extract this data, the mortality rate among the population can be obtained from the total individual dose intake and effective dose absorbed by the population living around the potential site. The results were compared with the allowed dose limits suggested by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which is 1 mSv/yr for the public. The results indicate that the mean activity concentration for both radionuclides (131I &137Cs) are higher at Bangi compared to Ninh Thuan for the first day of accident. With the highest activity concentration of 137Cs and 131I which are 13.00 MBq/m2 and 470.00 MBq/m2 respectively at Bangi, there are approximately about 0.001227 mSv and 1.33 mSv effective dose from releasing of 137Cs and 131I, respectively. However, for incident in Ninh Thuan, there are approximately about 4.9 x10-5 mSv and 0.0559 mSv effective dose from releasing of 137Cs and 131I respectively. For risk estimation, the highest mortality risk due to the inhalation of 137Cs is 15 out of 100,000 of population at Bangi within for altitude between 0 m to10 m within 4 hours after the accident. Meanwhile at Ninh Tuan there are about 3 out of 100,000 that is predicted to die due to the inhalation of 131I each 4 level of altitudes. It is vital to minimize the radiological consequences on population, enhance the emergency protocols at the regions by taking location and geographical site into account. Some of the actions that should be taken are by evacuation, sheltering, ban the sale of local agriculture productions, and long-range resettlement of the population.

Item Type:	Project Paper
Faculty:	Fakulti Sains
Depositing User:	Ms. ROHANA ALIAS
Date Deposited:	21 Jun 2024 00:02
Last Modified:	21 Jun 2024 00:02
URI:	http://psaspb.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/1997

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